Lelanda Lee (Twitter: @LelandaLee) has kept careful track of the current Executive Council meeting, and I suspect many are carefully following her reportage. Using the hashtag #ExCounMtg, she’s operating out of an ethic that the people of The Episcopal Church deserve optimal transparency from its administrative bodies.
Particularly illuminating was a section of tweets during a presentation by TEC’s go-to guys for trends and data, Kirk Hadaway and Matthew Price. Lee had many observations and extrapolations, and among them we find:
Hadaway showing membership of TEC domestic diocs 1951-2010, pretty consistent, steady (not precipitous) decline since early 1970s
Hadaway speaks to graph of 1991-2010 membership stats, decline since about 2002, abt 50K members per yr decline
Hadaway says since 2002/03 pctge decline began to overshadow any increases in membership
Hadaway: decline since 2002 has been more sizable; lots of graphs, too quick to appreciate & understand; will look at PPT later?
Leading us to wonder: shouldn’t we all be paying pretty close attention to the facts and figures Hadaway and Price have presented to Executive Council?
We had best take an interest! Slide after slide tells the story of a numerically diminishing denomination, with a few bright spots and windows of opportunity (churches with younger members are more likely to grow; the Sunbelt as a place of church vitality).
The news is not great:
… slipping domestic membership
… fewer growing churches and more declining churches
… fewer pledge cards, members, communicants in good standing, and Easter pew-sitters
On a slide titled Broader Measures of Church Vitality, researchers use a number of measurements to “speak to a parish’s integration in the community and the possibility for future growth.”
- Change in church school enrollment: -33%
- Change in number of marriages performed: -41%
- Change in number of burials/funerals: -21%
- Change in the number of child baptisms: -36%
- Change in the number of adult baptisms: -40%
- Change in the number of confirmations: -32%
Conclusion:
While these numbers may not capture the totality of what is happening in the Church, we do not have a measure that is moving in a positive direction.
So, c’mon already: let’s get into this and approach it with whatever realistic hope there is, and start making sense of our Really Real Reality. What do you think? Where would you start?
By the way, the totality of tweets about Hadaway’s presentation(s?) is below. Just click READ MORE.
Due to the way Twitter works, you’ll have to start at the bottom and scroll your way up.
Hadaway: decline since 2002 has been more sizable; lots of graphs, too quick to apprePB praises stats attn to non US diocs. Good info and some good insights can and do arise
Q re whether we track for those who are seeking vs those who are ordained; Price answers not being done now
Q re why not so many Gen X ordiantions: Price says not-joining profile of Gen X significant factor, diff experience from Boomers
Hadaway says figures of congreg losses in 4 diocs are reflected as nonreptg, noticeable but not signifcant against rest of stats
Q re whether 4 diocs losing large % of congregs is reflected in stats; Hadaway says recognized but not specific accted for
Hadaway – in resp to Q, giving to TEC somewhat better than general charitable giving
Q whether ethnic clergy figures are broken down? Price answers info avail as part of survey data but not recorded otherwise
Q re avg age of ordination: figures are based on annual info answers Price.
Hadaway: congregations reptg financial stress 78% of TEC vs 58% in US over 10 yrs til 2009/10
Hadaway back on finances. Avg pledge contd to incr to latest figures in 2009
Price: Avg age of active clergy at 56; avg age of ordination remains at 46
Price, statistician for CPF, 9000 active clergy & 6000 retd; numbers will cross at some point
Hadaway: 86.7% non Hispanic White in TEC; English only churches 28% are growing=95% of churches; > one language 61% are growing
Hadaway: churches w/more members 49 and younger more likely to grow. High correlation age w/growth & decline
Hadaway: TEC youth and young adults about 10% vs 20+% in other denoms. We are an aging church. We knew that.
Hadaway: more church closings (510) than opening (213) past ten yrs
Hadaway: sunbelt growth pattern across board of all denoms incl evangelical churches
Hadaway: increasing becoming more of a sunbelt church, incls southern diocs & CA & southwest
Hadaway: back to a sunbelt pattern, less decline there, in 2010; 40% ASA in southern diocs in US
Hadaway: ASA 1995-2000 from CPG mapping program, a map of Avg Sunday Attendance, growth in CA, TX, Miss, GA, VT
Hadaway: Other mainline denoms combined – TEC very close to their decline figures in early 2000’s; also difficult for all denoms
Hadaway: larger declines in child & adult baptisms and in confirmations 30-40% rates; no measuremts showing positive direction
Hadaway: looking at broader measures of church vitality such as changes in church school enrollmt; marriages performed; burials
Hadaway: 22.1% decline in pledge cards; 22.3% decl in worship attendance; 20.1% decl in Easter attendance; 2002-2010 stats
Hadaway: Methodist Ch would look better than TEC; but Presbyterians would look worse in terms of declines
Hadaway: decline since 2002 has been more sizable; lots of graphs, too quick to appreciate & understand; will look at PPT later?
Hadaway says since 2002/03 pctge decline began to overshadow any increases in membership
Hadaway speaks to graph of 1991-2010 membership stats, decline since about 2002, abt 50K members per yr decline
Hadaway showing membership of TEC domestic diocs 1951-2010, pretty consistent, steady (not precipitous) decline since early 1970s
Kirk Hadaway & Matthew Price giving rept on Parochial Repts, demographics of TEC